Tropical Storm Beryl has escalated rapidly, achieving hurricane status on Saturday and is poised to become a major hurricane by Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Currently the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl is located about 595 miles east-southeast of Barbados. It packs maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and is accelerating westward at a brisk 20 mph, based on the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane is predicted to strengthen rapidly. To keep a close watch on the storm, reconnaissance aircraft will commence routine flights early Sunday morning to gather crucial data on winds, position, and surrounding conditions.
Hurricane Warnings and Forecast
Ahead of the storm, hurricane warnings have been issued for Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands. Additionally, tropical storm warnings are in place for Martinique and Tobago.
Beryl is expected to hit major hurricane status by the time its center approaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night into Monday, with peak winds potentially reaching 125 mph with stronger gusts.
Residents should prepare for hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, large waves, and heavy rainfall. Anticipated rainfall of 3 to 6 inches could trigger flooding in vulnerable areas, particularly on the tops and windward sides of hills and mountains where gusts can be 30% stronger.
Moreover, southeastern Puerto Rico might experience 1 to 4 inches of rain from Monday night into Tuesday.
According to hurricane specialist John Cangialosi, “A life-threatening storm surge will elevate water levels by 5 to 7 feet above normal near landfall areas, accompanied by large and destructive waves.”
Favorable Conditions for Strengthening
Beryl is moving through atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are unusually conducive for its intensification. However, these conditions are expected to become less favorable once Beryl enters the Caribbean, potentially leading to a slowdown in strengthening.
Currently, hurricane-force winds extend up to 10 miles from Beryl’s center, while tropical storm-force winds can be felt up to 60 miles from its center.
Additional watches and warnings are likely for the Windward and southern Leeward Islands soon. Residents in the central and western Caribbean should keep a close watch on Beryl’s progress due to forecast uncertainties.
Invest 95L Spaghetti Models
Forecasting tools and models play an integral role in predicting a storm’s path and intensity. The hurricane center relies on the top-performing models to develop its forecasts.
Other Potential Tropical Storms
In addition to Beryl, the hurricane center is monitoring two more low-pressure systems. One may form in the Bay of Campeche, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, early Sunday, with conditions possibly favorable for further development.
Another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to become a tropical depression by mid-next week, moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. This system has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next week.
