CNN’s Harry Enten noted that Harris leads Trump in nearly every national poll
CNN’s Harry Enten sounds alarm on ‘danger zone’ polling for VP Kamala Harris in swing states
CNN’s Harry Enten is raising concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance in key swing states, describing her situation as being in the “danger zone” when it comes to her chances of winning the electoral college.
Enten explained that while Harris leads in national polls, her edge is much slimmer in crucial battleground states. He told CNN’s John Berman, “Harris is ahead in the average poll by 2.5 points nationally. But in seven key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Harris only leads by 0.3 points. So, it’s a much tighter race in those states than it appears nationally.”
The national polls show Harris leading former President Trump, but this isn’t necessarily a safe bet for the electoral college. “Even if Harris wins the popular vote by two to three points, her chances of winning the Electoral College are only 53%. She needs to widen her lead to three to four points to have a clear majority chance. If her lead is less than two points, her chance of winning drops to 23%. Right now, Harris is in a precarious position,” Enten shared.
According to Enten, Harris currently has about a 70% chance of winning the popular vote, but only around a 50% chance of clinching the electoral college. He added, “There’s roughly a 20% chance that Kamala Harris wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College.”
“We might see a split similar to what occurred in 2016 and 2000, where one candidate wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College. That’s why national polls showing Kamala Harris ahead don’t matter much at this point,” Enten warned.
In August, Enten mentioned that Trump has been notably underestimated in polls historically. “Despite Harris’ polling gains, Trump is still a strong contender. If there’s a polling shift like we’ve seen in previous years, Trump could very well end up winning. While I’m not predicting it, he is definitely still in the game given his current standing,” Enten cautioned.
A poll released on Sunday suggested that Harris is narrowing Trump’s lead in Iowa, a state Trump won by 9 points in both 2016 and 2020. According to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Harris trails Trump by just four points, with Trump at 47% and Harris at 43%.
