Despite Earth’s resilience to last weekend’s intense solar storm, experts caution that more severe solar eruptions could continue to impact us until 2025. Dr. Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astrophysicist, explained that the sun has not yet reached its “solar maximum,” the peak of its 11-year cycle characterized by heightened solar activity and energy output. This maximum is expected to occur in July 2025.
During the 2019 solar minimum, the number of visible sunspots on the sun’s surface was nearly zero. However, by the upcoming maximum in July 2025, the US National Space Weather Prediction Center anticipates up to 115 sunspots. These magnetically dense areas can produce solar flares and powerful coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can severely impact satellites, radio communications, and power grids.
The 11-year solar cycle only increases the sun’s total radiation output by a small percentage, but this additional energy is highly concentrated in sunspot activity. The excess energy, documented to disrupt satellites and black out radio communications, poses significant challenges for satellite operators. Even without major solar storms, the elevated radiation levels as we approach the solar maximum are already straining satellite infrastructure.
Last weekend’s G5 geomagnetic storm disrupted GPS satellites, stalling farming equipment across the US Midwest. Farmers reported that their tractors were shut down due to the solar storm. This incident underscores the immediate and practical impacts of solar activity on daily life and technology.
The Chandra X-ray telescope, operated by Dr. McDowell and launched in 1999, also took precautions to protect its instruments during the storm. While not the entire spacecraft was shut down, certain components were turned off to prevent electrical damage. Past solar storms have caused significant losses, such as the 1994 event that damaged three satellites, including one that was lost entirely.
As we approach the solar maximum, the risks to satellites, power grids, and communications systems will increase. Continuous monitoring and advances in forecasting are crucial to mitigate the potential impacts of these powerful solar events.
